Sunday, March 01, 2015

Israel Air Strikes on Iran Nukes...

Re(1):  "Keep Your Eyes on the Prize", BoghieOnYourSix, Boghie
Re(2):  "F-16I Sufa (Storm)", www.GlobalSecurity.org
Re(3):  "Syrian Airfields", www.globalsecurity.org
Re(4):  "ISIS is Losing", www.vox.com

After reading Drudge's headline "Paper: Obama Threatened to Shoot Down Israeli Jets" I was brought back to a post discussing an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities I wrote a number of years ago.  In it I postulated that Israel could temporarily take an air field in eastern Syria to use as a sortie base for bombing nuclear targets in Iran.  The diciest part of the plan would have been traversing the Iraq/Turkish border in such a way as to avoid conflict with the United States or Turkey.  While conflict with the U.S. in 2006 was not likely, the political storm would have been massive and destructive.  Since we controlled the airspace such an attack would have had at least the implicit of the United States.

My, how nine years have changed things.

  • Syria can no longer defend it's eastern territories
  • ISIS controls at least one of the eastern airfields
  • The United States no longer has a big footprint in Iraq
  • It is uncertain that the United States could defend Iraq's airspace
  • And, finally, would Jordan do anything if Israeli fuel tankers use their airspace.

Those are interesting questions that dramatically change the calculus.  Here are some interesting maps from GlobalSecurity.com:

Air Fields in Syria



ISIS Controlled areas of Syria


In this map note that the air field at Dayh An Zawr is controlled by ISIS.  The field I spoke about in the earlier post is contested by Hezbollah and other Islamist groups..  Also, note that the Syrian regime does not have much control of the region between Israel and the eastern air bases.  Thus the risk to Israel taking those eastern air fields has dramatically reduced since 2006.  An additional question:  Would the act of Israel taking an airfield from ISIS be an act of war on Syria?  I really do not think Assad would come to the defense of ISIS.

So, let us assume that Israel takes one of the two major airfields in eastern Syria - it would be much easier to do so now.  The following map documents the Iranian nuclear sites:

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Sortie Map


This map (Joel C. Robinson) assumes an attack from Israel, overflying Syria, Turkey, and Iraq or Jordan and Iraq, or Jordan and Saudi Arabia.  Sorties originating from eastern Syria that overfly Iraq would only be half as long.  The F15s in Israel's inventory can reach those targets from any site in the region, the F16Is would have to be within 1,800 km (combat radius) - see below:

F16I combat radius


Move those strike circles east almost a thousand clicks and Israeli aircraft could easily hit any target in Iran without refueling and with enough fuel for combat action as well.

The final question would be whether President Obama would order whatever air superiority assets we have in Iraq to "shoot down Israeli' strike aircraft.  How probable is that.  Actually, that is not even the final question.  Here is one to ponder.  Would Air Force pilots ordered to shoot down allied aircraft attacking an enemy who wants to destroy that ally actually find any of the hundreds of strike planes overflying Iraq?  Or would they take off and not find anything - yuk, yuk.  Would they actually want to attempt to shoot down allied aircraft piloted by some of the best in the world.   That is an interesting question - eh.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Waiting with Bated Breath!!!

Geez, on Thursday the Monthly Treasury Statement will complete Fiscal Year 2014.  I can hardly wait to present proof of ObamaCare bending the cost of healthcare down.  Not to mention proving that our budgetary genius must certainly demonstrate that he is more spendthrift than Bush the Chimp.

Beers all around when 'The One' chumps 'The Chimp'.

Numbers do not lie.  Just wait till Thursday.  I am giddy with glee!!!

Saturday, March 08, 2014

Obama, Working on a Three-Bagger!!!

Obama, Working on a Three-Bagger!!!

President BushPresident Obama
YearDeficit
YearDeficit
2001/02/01 - 2001/09/30$ -53,1292009/02/01 - 2009/09/30$ 1,019,780
2002/09/30$ 158,5202010/09/30$ 1,294,204
2003/09/30$ 374,2192011/09/30$ 1,298,614
2004/09/30$ 412,5532012/09/30$ 1,089,353
2005/09/30$ 318,6152013/09/30$    680,232
2006/09/30$ 247,6982014/01/31$    184,019
2007/09/30$ 162,8332015/09/30
2008/09/30$ 454,8062016/09/30
2008/10/01 - 2009/02/01$ 395,9432016/10/01 - 2017/02/01
Totals:$ 2,472,058Totals:$ 5,566,202

Peter Lynch would be proud, impressed, and embarrassed at the same time.  We got ourselves a Three-Bagger in the making.  Already well into a double, but with three years remaining who doesn't believe in Obama.  Just $1.8 Trillion away.  Piker material.  He can do it in a year!!!

Saturday, January 04, 2014

Glory in Obama!!!

Single handedly President Obama reduced the FY2013 deficit to a mere $225,426 Billion 'discount' to the Chimp's worst effort.  'W' - what a chump - could only generate a negative outflow of $492,334 (inflation adjusted) in FY2008.  And, he was only able to accomplish this pathetic effort during the very height of the housing and credit bubble.  What a piker.

We glory in Obama!!!


President BushPresident Obama
YearDeficit
YearDeficit
2001/02/01 - 2001/09/30$ -53,1292009/02/01 - 2009/09/30$ 1,019,780
2002/09/30$ 158,5202010/09/30$ 1,294,204
2003/09/30$ 374,2192011/09/30$ 1,298,614
2004/09/30$ 412,5532012/09/30$ 1,089,353
2005/09/30$ 318,6152013/09/30$    680,232
2006/09/30$ 247,6982014/09/30
2007/09/30$ 162,8332015/09/30
2008/09/30$ 454,8062016/09/30
2008/10/01 - 2009/02/01$ 395,9432016/10/01 - 2017/02/01
Totals:$ 2,472,058Totals:$ 5,382,183

Earlier I postulated that Obama may be slipping:  "If this Administration continues to amaze me by reducing the FY2013 deficit by $6 Billion a month we will ONLY have an annual deficit of $457 Billion."  That was truly disappointing.

However, I knew I could count on him and his Administration.  Even with record income he strove to spend the best he could under the straight jacket impost by the Tea Party.

So, let us party with $680,232 of new debt!!!

Sunday, November 24, 2013

A 'Failout' is Always and Option

Re(1):  'Healthcare.gov and the Gulf Between Planning and Reality'. Clay Shirky, Nov 19, 2013

This is the most concise lesson learn document from the Obamacare failout I have read.  However, it also presents the best discussion I have read on the topic of technical engineering for bureaucratic planners.

It hits my Favorite Posts...

Friday, July 05, 2013

Photo Essay of Our Time

Pictures are worth a thousand words...



This is the cheapest and easiest 2,000 words I have ever typed. I could have finished my annual 'Daughters of the American Revolution' paper in minutes rather than weeks when I was a dumb youth.

The end goal of Obamacare is 'Single Plier Healthcare'.

Enjoy the benefits...

Friday, May 17, 2013

He's Slipping!!!

President Obama's administration is proving that they are good stewards of your government's funds.  The deficit has dropped $6 Billion since March.

Behold!!!


President BushPresident Obama
YearDeficit
YearDeficit
2001/02/01 - 2001/09/30$ -53,1292009/02/01 - 2009/09/30$ 1,019,780
2002/09/30$ 158,5202010/09/30$ 1,294,204
2003/09/30$ 374,2192011/09/30$ 1,298,614
2004/09/30$ 412,5532012/09/30$ 1,089,353
2005/09/30$ 318,6152013/04/30$    487,594
2006/09/30$ 247,6982014/09/30
2007/09/30$ 162,8332015/09/30
2008/09/30$ 454,8062016/09/30
2008/10/01 - 2009/02/01$ 395,9432016/10/01 - 2017/02/01
Totals:$ 2,472,058Totals:5,189,545

If this Administration continues to amaze me by reducing the FY2013 deficit by $6 Billion a month we will ONLY have an annual deficit of $457 Billion.  

Take that you Bush Monkey Voters.

Except, that is still more than any of the BushMonkeyWhacker deficits.  Any of them.

But it is a start!!!